Monday, May 09, 2005

Peak Oil: Non-Geological Peak Scenario



Geoff Styles has written a post on a recent report on peak oil by Science Applications International (SAIC) which was commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy. What is particularly of note in Geoff's analysis is his emphasis on non-geological factors such as "geopolitics, access, and industry investment patterns".

In what I'm going to call the Styles Scenario - oil production could reach a temporary peak based on non-geological factors which could become permanent as a result of underdevelopment of resources by OPEC.

I agree with Geoff, time is wasting. The world needs a serious discussion about where our future energy supplies are going to come from.

The Styles Scenario: Geoff Styles' full post on a possible non-geological peak in oil production

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4 Comments:

Blogger Rob said...

I actually think this is just a different way of restating the industry's party line on the situation, with a revised timeline.

7:32 pm, May 09, 2005  
Blogger James said...

Thanks for your comment, Rob.

Well it certainly could be used as an argument that OPEC's resources are better managed by "us" than by "them".

However, an argument can also be made that the major western oil companies have also been underinvesting in new production.

There exists the attitude among many of the world's politicans that the market and technical innovation will sort out any future energy problems.

True leadership would involve an independent audit of remaining non-renewable resources and a roadmap to a post-oil age.

James
Alternative Energy Blog

4:50 am, May 10, 2005  
Blogger Thomas said...

I do not think the market going unchecked will sort anything environmental out. For instance, without governmental regulation there are no checks on pollution, as if there are when regulation is in place. There is a reliance or myth that technology will save us.. well, one can either hope so, or drive the market with incentive... and higher fuel prices are incentive for change. So are subsidies such as tax breaks for hybrid vechicle consumers. Necessity is the mother of invention... I hope so. But does it have to be? Why not progress for the sake of clean energy, clean water, clean air. . . and stable ecosystems, biological diversity ect..!

10:38 am, May 14, 2005  
Anonymous Drew said...

I recently ran across this interview with Rep. Roscoe Bartlett of Maryland about peak oil. He talks about the need to develop alternative energy sources before our oil supply runs out. He mentions wind, solar, nuclear and fusion. It’s about time someone in Congress brought these issues to the forefront. Rep. Bartlett, as a member of the Energy Subcommittee, is finally doing this.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Maryland Representative Roscoe Bartlett speaks with David Room of Global Public Media about his special order speeches on peak oil. Mr. Bartlett discusses the response to his speeches and his plans for educating the public. He also discusses ramifications of oil peak, the responsibilities of leadership, and the need for a change in how we define success.

Transcript: http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/402
Streaming audio, MP3, and transcript available at: http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/397

6:16 pm, May 14, 2005  

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